After years of pandemic aftermath, strikes and market distortions, 2025 was seen by many as the year of normalisation. However, a closer look at the major international film markets - Sundance, Cannes, Toronto (TIFF) and the American Film Market (AFM) - shows: The industry is not back in its old mode. Instead, a New, significantly more restrictive set of rules established.
From a beacon of hope to sobriety
Although more face-to-face meetings, premieres and market activities took place again in 2025, the economic reality remained tense. Buyers are acting more cautiously than ever, budgets are more tightly calculated and deals are being concluded more slowly, more selectively and more data-driven. The often cited "upturn" is turning out to be more of a Recalibration of a market that has changed permanently.
Buyer's market instead of seller's market
A clear pattern emerged on all major markets:
Fewer, but more focussed deals.
International distributors and platforms prefer to invest in projects with clearly recognisable sales arguments - well-known cast names, proven genres or strong festival resonance. Risk-averse decisions dominate.
For independent productions without stars or clear market positioning, it is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve relevant minimum guarantees or broad territorial deals. This is particularly noticeable for Mid-budget filmswhich is neither a clear arthouse title nor a genre film suitable for the masses.
Post-theatre revenues continue to lose importance
A structural problem remains the Collapse of traditional recycling chains. International TV licences, home entertainment and second-window revenues no longer provide the imputed security of previous years. Streaming platforms are acting cautiously, buying selectively and favouring complete packages or in-house productions.
As a result, many financing models that were based on optimistic reutilisation assumptions no longer work. Producers and sales agents are forced to be more realistic and conservative in their calculations.
Festivals remain important - but different
Sundance, Cannes and TIFF continue to have great symbolic and strategic importance. But their role has shifted:
Festivals are less pure sales machines, but increasingly Positioning and visibility platforms. A successful festival appearance is no longer a substitute for a solid market fit, but it can be a decisive factor in gaining access to the narrower circle of buyers.
Cannes remains the most important international marketplace for high-quality productions, while Sundance and TIFF are more curatorial and thus limit the number of potentially marketable titles.
Stricter rules for all parties involved
The "tighter rulebook" that many industry players will feel in 2025 will affect all levels:
Producers must develop projects earlier in a market-orientated way.
Sales Agents are under pressure to communicate realistic prices and expectations.
Financier require resilient sales strategies instead of optimistic scenarios.
The market is penalising overvaluations faster and more consistently than just a few years ago.
Conclusion: adaptation instead of nostalgia
The film markets of 2025 clearly show that a return to the conditions of the 2010s is unlikely. Instead, a Permanently cautious, structured and more strictly regulated market.
Those who adapt - with clear target groups, realistic budgets and well thought-out distribution strategies - can continue to be successful. Those who rely on old mechanisms, on the other hand, run the risk of being left behind.
For the film industry, this means less spectacle, but more strategic precision. And perhaps that is precisely the new normality.