Shortly before the start of CinemaCon, Gower Street Analytics presented its updated forecast for the global cinema year 2026 - which is more a sign of subdued expectations than optimism. Instead of an increase, the estimate was revised slightly downwards.

According to this, the analysis company expects a global box office of around 34.7 billion US dollars. This corresponds to a decline of around 300 million US dollars compared to the December forecast. Although the global cinema market remains on course for growth, the momentum is less dynamic than recently assumed.

USA and China below expectations

The two largest individual markets in particular are slowing down the overall trend. For the USA Gower Street now expects around 9.75 billion US dollars box office. Although this corresponds to an increase of around ten per cent compared to the previous year, it is below previous expectations. The reasons cited by the institute include weaker than expected "defections" from 2025.

The correction is even more pronounced in China out. After a disappointing first quarter, Gower Street lowered its forecast by around 550 million US dollars to 6.55 billion US dollars. The market thus remains significantly below the previous year and also noticeably below the pre-pandemic level.

International markets as a stabilising factor

The international markets outside China show a contrasting picture. Here, Gower Street is raising its forecast 18.38 billion US dollars to. The strong performance of local productions in various territories was the decisive factor.

In Europe and Asia in particular, national hits provided positive impetus and in some cases even surpassed major US launches. Overall, however, growth remains heterogeneous and is distributed very differently from region to region.

Moderate growth with structural shifts

Overall, the updated forecast means global growth of around 3 per cent compared to the previous year. Compared to the pre-pandemic level, however, the market remains around 13 per cent back.

The updated assessment of Gower Street Analytics underlines one thing above all: although the global cinema market is continuing to stabilise, a clear return to the peak figures of previous years is not on the cards for the time being. Instead, the growth drivers are increasingly shifting away from individual blockbusters towards more regionally differentiated markets.