While the annual Nostradamus Report attempts to look into the future, Cannes discussed the findings from the past year. How has the global market changed as a result of strikes, war and market shifts? What developments can be expected as a result of AI and changes in user behaviour? At the film festival on the Côte d'Azur, global players and influential decision-makers discussed what will probably affect us all. In addition, the viability of every production location worldwide depends on the respective framework conditions in a production market that is initially shrinking. Film funding is once again a key issue. We summarise the most important facts.
The Nostradamus Report (available in the Ensider:Premium media library) is commissioned annually by the Gothenburg Film Festival and summarises the film industry's expert opinions on the most important, future-oriented effects. The first of seven aspects already concretises the comprehensive change in our industry: "Changes in the broader audiovisual market are perceived as existential threats to traditional film and television productions, and the ongoing climate crises, wars and civil unrest will have unpredictable effects on markets, industries and artists." (1. Paradoxically, Hope).
What initially seems gloomy turns out after a few lines to be a visionary, motivating outlook on a possible future. The report provides unusual perspectives without claiming to make clairvoyant or even distopian forecasts.
AI and virtual production in particular are described there as a special opportunity. And this is not the only point where the abstractly drawn images and the sunny impressions of the world's largest film festival are once again combined to form a common picture.
Technology is no longer the limiting factor for storytelling. The lack of scarcity will possibly devalue classic presentations and the usage behaviour of short-form content will also bring about changes. Authenticity, reality and mobility could represent other, value-creating elements for audiovisual stories of the future - just as futuristic effects and stars charged with self-staging and marketing do today. Discussions held at various conferences by global market leaders should give us food for thought.
Last year's strike alone had an impact on 79 cinema productions and 17 streaming productions from US studios and streamers. Warner Bros will be by far the most profitable distributor this year, while Netflix will be the only profitable streaming service - according to the companies' official plans.
Disney was responsible for the largest production budgets in the last 5 years, including 8 of the 10 most expensive productions. Avengers: Endgame and Avatar: The Way of Water together consumed over 700 million US dollars in production costs. However, Disney released fewer films than its competitors. At the same time, they utilised studio infrastructure and large VFX capacities from within the Group. As a product location, we only play a role in productions with a budget that can match the annual programme budget of a German broadcaster with competitive funding.
China continues to develop into an increasingly important market for the US majors, with a recent market share of 22.9% of global revenues - in figures of 7.8bn US dollars last year. (Source Comscore)
In the ranking of film festivals, Cannes once again leads the big 5 festivals with 258 films, ahead of Berlin with 221 films.
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(Author: Markus Vogelbacher)