A few weeks ago, the Nostradamus Report 2026 painted a picture of the audiovisual industry as an increasingly interconnected ecosystem – with no clear dividing lines between film, TV, streaming and the creator economy. Since its publication, this picture has not changed fundamentally. But it has taken on a clearer shape.

The current debate surrounding festivals, studio strategies and the success of creator-driven cinema productions shows that this upheaval is less an abstract prediction of the future and more a series of concrete, and in some cases contradictory, developments taking place within the industry as it operates today.

When festivals go from being a springboard to a risk

One of the most striking shifts concerns the role of major film festivals. Whilst they have long been regarded as a key platform for prestige, awards campaigns and international attention, scepticism is currently growing amongst film studios.

There is growing debate as to whether festival premieres are still an advantage at all – or whether, on the contrary, they shape public perception at an early stage and thus increase financial risks. The case Joker: Folie à Deux It continues to be cited as a benchmark within industry circles: a film whose reception at festivals shaped expectations even before it was released to the general public.

Other examples from the studio and IP sectors also follow a similar pattern: major films are increasingly being released without a traditional festival strategy, relying instead on carefully managed marketing campaigns and direct engagement with audiences.

The key question therefore shifts from „How do we get into the festival?“ to „Do we even need the festival any more?“.

The Creator Economy: From the Parallel Market to a Box-Office Hit

The transformation is even more evident in the creator economy. What the report previously described as a structural convergence can now be observed in specific market developments.

Films such as Backrooms (A24) or Obsession Curry Barker’s work shows that creators„ backgrounds are no longer merely a marketing add-on, but can themselves generate viable cinema models. It is no longer a case of “YouTubers trying their hand at film’, but rather projects that hold their own in direct competition with established studios.

What is particularly noteworthy here is not so much the individual success as the momentum behind it: strong community ties, existing IP universes, and a level of attention that is not generated in the traditional way through festival premieres or star power, but rather through digital reach and ongoing engagement with audiences.

This also shifts the logic behind „talent discovery“: it is no longer institutions that curate careers, but existing online ecosystems that channel them into the cinema and streaming markets.

Between a break in structure and over-interpretation

Despite these developments, a certain degree of caution remains evident in the debate. Not every movement in the market necessarily confirms a lasting structural shift.

The debate surrounding film festivals, for example, could just as easily be a phase of cyclical adjustment, during which studios are realigning their strategies without the festivals losing their relevance entirely. Nor does the success of individual creator-driven films necessarily indicate how scalable this model is in the long term.

The Nostradamus Report itself avoids precisely this kind of oversimplification: it does not describe a fixed scenario for the future, but rather a system in transition – and it is precisely this transition that is now unfolding in real time, complete with uncertainties, setbacks and counter-movements.

Conclusion: The transformation is real – but not linear

What can be inferred from current developments is less a clear break than a shift in the balance of power. Festivals are not necessarily losing their significance, but their role is changing. Creators are not automatically becoming the new industry, but they have long since become part of the industrial value chain. And traditional studios are not reacting to a crisis, but to a system that is taking on a new form.

The key point therefore remains the same as in the report itself: the audiovisual industry can no longer be understood in terms of the old categories. Nor, however, can it be neatly replaced by new ones.

It is currently reorganising itself – in ways that are visible and sometimes contradictory.