The market researchers at Gower Street Analytics are taking a cautious view of the 2026 cinema year. Although they expect only moderate growth worldwide, an above-average increase is emerging for the EMEA region. At the same time, the analysts are revising their forecast for the current cinema year 2025 downwards - an indication that the market is recovering more slowly than recently assumed.
The market researchers at Gower Street Analytics have presented an initial forecast for the global cinema year 2026. According to the forecast, the recovery of the global box office is likely to continue, albeit at a moderate pace. Overall, the analysts expect global box office takings of around USD 35 billion - the highest figure since the pandemic, but still below the level of the record year 2019.
The outlook for the EMEA region is particularly positive. Here, the experts expect noticeable growth compared to 2025, which should be above the global average. A more stable release calendar, an increasing normalisation of international productions and stronger demand in several European core markets are seen as drivers.
At the same time, Gower Street is revising its forecast for the current 2025 cinema year downwards. The global result is likely to remain below the expectations last adjusted in autumn. The analysts see reasons for this including the postponement of major titles, a lower number of blockbuster releases overall and ongoing structural challenges in the cinema market.
Despite the cautious assessment for 2025, Gower Street remains cautiously optimistic. The forecast for 2026 signals a further return to pre-crisis levels - albeit without a sudden catch-up effect. According to the analysts, a full return to 2019 sales levels will not be achieved until the following years at the earliest.