The headline about the „demise of the cinema“ continues to make the rounds. Yet the international analysis by the French film funding body, the CNC, paints a much more nuanced picture: the cinema is not disappearing – it is undergoing a profound transformation. The industry must adapt to an audience that goes to the cinema less frequently but with greater purpose, and to a market in which local films, new forms of distribution and personalised cinema experiences are gaining in importance.

The study published by the CNC „Cinemas: what are the international trends?“ examines 14 key cinema markets and analyses trends in exhibition, audiences, film offerings and business models in the wake of the pandemic. The key finding is that the crisis facing cinemas is less a crisis of the medium itself than a crisis of the existing business model.

Fewer cinema-goers, but no retreat from the cinema

Global cinema markets remain below pre-pandemic levels. However, the decline in audience numbers does not automatically indicate that cinema is losing its significance. Rather, audience behaviour is changing: people are being more selective about when they go to the cinema, and films need to offer a special occasion.

For the industry, this means a shift from a volume-based model to a quality-based model. Not every film can any longer expect to reach a wide audience – but individual events can generate significantly greater attention.

Local films are becoming a key factor for success

One of the most significant developments concerns the role of national productions. The CNC analysis shows that successful cinema markets are increasingly dependent on the strength of their own content. Hollywood remains an important factor, but the dominance of American productions can no longer be taken for granted.

This point is particularly relevant for Germany. The future of the cinema market will not be determined solely by international blockbusters, but also by the ability to reach local audiences with local stories.

The question for producers and funding bodies is therefore: Which films will manage to become cultural events once again?

Having more screens won’t solve the problem

One surprising finding of the study is that there are now more cinema screens worldwide than there were before the pandemic. At the same time, audience numbers are significantly lower in many places. The sheer number of screens is therefore not a sufficient indicator of success.

The key factor will be how cinemas use their spaces. Modern cinema strategies are increasingly focusing on comfort, premium offerings, events and forging stronger links with local audiences.

Cinemas need to move away from being mere venues for screenings and become places where people can enjoy an experience.

Streaming is not the enemy

According to a CNC analysis, the old „cinema versus streaming“ dichotomy does not do justice to the situation. Streaming has changed viewing habits, but it does not automatically replace the communal experience of going to the cinema.

The challenge lies rather in understanding the respective strengths of each viewing method: streaming is all about availability and convenience, whilst the cinema is about community, the event atmosphere and emotional impact.

New responsibilities for cinema operators

The role of cinema operators is changing. Marketing, audience analysis and programme planning are becoming increasingly important. Cinemas need to understand their audiences better and adopt a more data-driven approach.

This is also changing the relationship between distributors and cinema operators: the marketing of a film no longer automatically ends on its release date – it is increasingly becoming a joint endeavour.

An opportunity for independent cinemas

Smaller and independent theatres in particular stand to benefit from this trend. Their strength lies not so much in competing on the basis of scale, but rather in their distinct identity, their closeness to the audience and their carefully curated programmes.

The CNC study sees opportunities, particularly for arthouse cinemas, if cinemas continue to develop their role as cultural venues.

Conclusion: Cinema does not need saving, but rather further development

The international perspective shows that the future of cinema does not depend on whether people still want to watch films on the big screen in general. The crucial question is what value a trip to the cinema will offer in future.

For the German film industry, this means: less focus on a return to the old normal, and more attention to new audience needs, strong local content and innovative cinema models.

Cinema isn’t going away. But it needs to redefine itself.